D.2 Methodologies and Models

D.2.1 Employment and Population

The description of socioeconomic conditions includes indicators, such as population, civilian labor force, employment, unemployment rate, and income. These indicators provide a basis for comparing baseline projections of the affected regions to estimates of project-induced impacts. These baseline projections depict the No Action alternative. The baseline projections are derived from forecasts for the project period developed with data from BEA.

An analysis of the existing labor availability was performed to determine the number of workers that would be needed to come from outside the region. In addition to jobs created directly by the proposed project alternatives, other jobs and opportunities are created indirectly within the region. These indirect jobs and resulting income are measured by employing the most recent version of the Regional Input-Output Modeling System developed by BEA. For this analysis, direct effect multipliers were used to determine project-related additional indirect workers and earnings increases. Final demand multipliers were not used because there were not sufficient data on purchases. Population increases due to the in-migration of new workers and their families are estimated by the number of new workers and the national average household size because this new population would come from unknown places outside the region.

Total employment and local economic data for all the sites are given in tables D.2.1-1 through D.2.1-8. Population data for all the sites are given in tables D.2.1-9 through D.2.1-16.

Table D.2.1-1.-- Employment and Local Economy for the Oak Ridge Reservation
Regional Economic Area, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

Regional Economic Area1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Civilian labor force


486,400



513,600



535,800



555,300



594,000



601,300

Total employment



462,900



488,700



509,800



528,400



565,200



572,100

Unemployment rate (percentage)



4.9



4.9



4.9



4.9



4.9



4.9

Total personal income (thousand dollars)



16,498,303



18,391,177



20,017,623



21,498,098



24,601,119



25,206,968

Per capita income (dollars per person)



18,198



19,214



20,046



20,774



22,223



22,494

Census 1993a; Census 1993b; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j; DOC 1995a; DOL 1991a; DOL 1995a; OR LMES 1996i; ORR 1995a:1.

Table D.2.1-2.-- Employment and Local Economy for the Savannah River Site
Regional Economic Area, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

Regional Economic Area1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Civilian labor force


261,400



278,100



292,300



306,100



335,600



338,500

Total employment



243,800



259,400



272,700



285,500



313,000



315,800

Unemployment rate (percentage)



6.7



6.7



6.7



6.7



6.7



6.7

Total personal income (thousand dollars)



10,608,794



12,013,250



13,269,987



14,550,516



17,487,856



17,798,751

Per capita income (dollars per person)



17,789



18,930



19,895



20,833



22,839



23,041

Census 1993a; Census 1993c; Census 1993e; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j; DOC 1995a; DOE 1995p; DOL 1991a; DOL 1995a; SR DOE 1995b; SRS 1995a:1.

Table D.2.1-3.-- Employment and Local Economy for the Kansas City Plant
Regional Economic Area, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

Regional Economic Area1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Civilian labor force


1,215,800



1,255,900



1,296,200



1,338,900



1,428,200



1,444,000

Total employment



1,156,200



1,194,400



1,232,700



1,273,400



1,358,300



1,373,300

Unemployment rate (percentage)



4.9



4.9



4.9



4.9



4.9



4.9

Total personal income (thousand dollars)



46,020,762



49,151,226



52,309,800



55,815,538



63,506,729



64,919,757

Per capita income (dollars per person)



20,004



20,683



21,327



22,030



23,499



23,759

Census 1993a; Census 1993q; Census 1993t; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j; DOC 1995a; DOL 1991a; DOL 1995a; KCP 1995a:1.

Table D.2.1-4.-- Employment and Local Economy for the Pantex Plant Regional Economic Area, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

Regional Economic Area1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Civilian labor force


234,700



247,800



261,100



274,800



302,300



302,000

Total employment



223,300



235,800



248,400



261,500



287,700



287,400

Unemployment rate (percentage)



4.8



4.8



4.8



4.8



4.8



4.8

Total personal income (thousand dollars)



9,622,309



10,728,135



11,908,766



13,190,906



15,965,800



15,933,429

Per capita income (dollars per person)



19,987



21,104



22,235



23,401



25,745



25,719

Census 1993a; Census 1993m; Census 1993w; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j; DOC 1995a; DOL 1991a; DOL 1995a; PX 1995a:2.

Table D.2.1-5.-- Employment and Local Economy for the Los Alamos National
Laboratory Regional Economic Area, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

Regional Economic Area1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Civilian labor force


119,700



130,800



140,900



150,400



169,400



175,200

Total employment



112,300



122,700



132,200



141,100



158,900



164,400

Unemployment rate (percentage)



6.2



6.2



6.2



6.2



6.2



6.2

Total personal income (thousand dollars)



4,218,781



5,034,646



5,845,041



6,655,720



8,440,189



9,034,538

Per capita income (dollars per person)



18,314



20,007



21,557



23,003



25,904



26,801

Census 1993a; Census 1993m; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j; DOC 1995a; DOL 1991a; DOL 1995a; LANL 1995b:1.

Table D.2.1-6.-- Employment and Local Economy for the Lawrence Livermore National
Laboratory Regional Economic Area, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

Regional Economic Area1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Civilian labor force


4,556,000



5,004,100



5,448,100



5,917,500



6,992,100



7,097,200

Total employment



4,208,100



4,621,900



5,032,000



5,465,600



6,458,200



6,555,300

Unemployment rate (percentage)



7.6



7.6



7.6



7.6



7.6



7.6

Total personal income (thousand dollars)



236,627,513



285,131,842



337,968,862



398,727,427



556,687,763



573,557,669

Per capita income (dollars per person)



26,716



29,310



31,910



34,660



40,954



41,570

Census 1993a; Census 1993x; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j; DOC 1995a; DOL 1991a; DOL 1995a; LLNL 1995i:1.

Table D.2.1-7.-- Employment and Local Economy for the Sandia National
Laboratories Regional Economic Area, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

Regional Economic Area1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Civilian labor force


408,300



446,100



480,600



512,900



577,500



597,500

Total employment



385,200



420,900



453,500



483,900



544,900



563,800

Unemployment rate (percentage)



5.7



5.7



5.7



5.7



5.7



5.7

Total personal income (thousand dollars)



14,923,362



17,809,373



20,676,034



23,543,700



29,856,016



31,958,442

Per capita income (dollars per person)



17,676



19,310



20,806



22,202



25,002



25,867

Census 1993a; Census 1993f; Census 1993m; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j; DOC 1995a; DOL 1991a; DOL 1995a; SNL 1995b:1.

Table D.2.1-8.-- Employment and Local Economy for the Nevada Test Site
Regional Economic Area, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

Regional Economic Area1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Civilian labor force


648,600



747,100



814,100



861,900



959,500



993,200

Total employment



608,900



701,400



764,300



809,100



900,800



932,400

Unemployment rate (percentage)



6.1



6.1



6.1



6.1



6.1



6.1

Total personal income (thousand dollars)



27,397,938



36,357,995



43,164,854



48,380,917



59,961,996



64,253,190

Per capita income (dollars per person)



22,083



25,438



27,718



29,345



32,669



33,817

Census 1993a; Census 1993f; Census 1993y; Census 1993z; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j; DOC 1995a; DOL 1991a; DOL 1995a; NTS 1995a:1.

Table D.2.1-9.-- Population for the Oak Ridge Reservation Region of Influence, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

County/City1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Anderson County


73,300



77,400



80,800



83,700



89,500



90,600

Clinton



9,900



10,400



10,900



11,300



12,000



12,200

Oak Ridge



26,300



27,800



29,000



30,000



32,100



32,500

Knox County



361,400



381,500



398,100



412,500



441,300



446,700

Knoxville



173,900



183,600



191,600



198,500



212,400



215,000

Loudon County



34,600



36,500



38,100



39,500



42,200



42,700

Lenoir City



7,100



7,500



7,800



8,100



8,600



8,700

Roane County



50,000



52,800



55,100



57,100



61,100



61,800

Harriman



7,400



7,900



8,200



8,500



9,100



9,200

Kingston



4,800



5,100



5,300



5,500



5,900



6,000

Total ROI



519,300



548,200



572,100



592,800



634,100



641,800

City values are included in county totals.

Census 1993a; Census 1993b; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j.

Table D.2.1-10.--Population for the Savannah River Site Region of Influence, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

County/City1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Aiken County


135,300



144,000



151,300



158,500



173,700



175,300

Aiken



23,600



25,100



26,400



27,600



30,300



30,600

North Augusta



17,200



18,300



19,300



20,200



22,100



22,300

Barnwell County



22,200



23,600



24,800



26,000



28,500



28,700

Columbia County



76,800



81,800



85,900



90,000



98,600



99,500

Richmond County



213,000



226,700



238,300



249,500



273,400



275,900

Augusta



46,800



49,800



52,300



54,800



60,100



60,600

Total ROI



447,300



476,100



500,300



524,000



574,200



579,400

City values are included in county totals.

Census 1993a; Census 1993c; Census 1993e; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j.

Table D.2.1-11.--Population for the Kansas City Plant Region of Influence, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

County/City1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Cass County


68,700



70,900



73,200



75,600



80,700



81,600

Belton



19,800



20,400



21,100



21,800



23,200



23,500

Harrisonville



8,200



8,500



8,800



9,100



9,700



9,800

Jackson County



645,400



666,700



688,100



710,800



758,200



766,600

Kansas City



439,300



453,800



468,400



483,800



516,000



521,800

Lee's Summit



52,200



54,000



55,700



57,500



61,400



62,100

Johnson County



381,900



394,500



407,100



420,600



448,600



453,600

Overland Park



121,400



125,400



129,400



133,700



142,600



144,200

Wyandott County



161,600



166,900



172,200



177,900



189,800



191,900

Total ROI



1,257,600



1,299,000



1,340,600



1,384,900



1,477,300



1,493,700

City values are included in county totals.

Census 1993a; Census 1993q; Census 1993t; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j.

Table D.2.1-12.-- Population for the Pantex Plant Region of Influence, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

County/City1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Armstrong County


2,100



2,200



2,300



2,500



2,700



2,700

Carson County



6,800



7,200



7,600



8,000



8,800



8,800

Potter County



105,000



110,900



116,800



122,900



135,200



135,100

Amarillo



169,500



179,000



188,600



198,500



218,400



218,100

Randall County



96,700



102,100



107,600



113,200



124,500



124,400

Total ROI



210,600



222,400



234,300



246,600



271,200



271,000

Amarillo is divided across Potter and Randall Counties. The population shown for Amarillo is for the whole city. Potter and Randall County totals represent their share of Amarillo.

Census 1993a; Census 1993w; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j.

Table D.2.1-13.--Population for the Los Alamos National Laboratory Region of Influence, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

County/City1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Los Alamos County


19,200



21,000



22,600



24,200



27,200



28,200

Rio Arriba County



36,900



40,300



43,500



46,400



52,200



54,000

Espanola



9,600



10,400



11,200



12,000



13,500



14,000

Santa Fe County



111,300



121,600



131,000



139,800



157,500



162,900

Santa Fe



62,500



68,200



73,500



78,400



88,300



91,400

Total ROI



167,400



182,900



197,100



210,400



236,900



245,100

City values are included in county totals.

Census 1993a; Census 1993m; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j.

Table D.2.1-14.--Population for the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Region of Influence, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

County/City1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Alameda County


1,400,700



1,536,800



1,673,100



1,817,300



2,147,300



2,179,600

Livermore



64,300



70,600



76,800



83,500



98,600



100,100

Pleasanton



58,100



63,700



69,400



75,400



89,000



90,400

Contra Costa County



900,500



987,900



1,075,600



1,168,200



1,380,400



1,401,200

San Joaquin County



540,000



592,400



645,000



700,600



827,800



840,300

Manteca



45,500



49,900



54,300



59,000



69,700



70,800

Tracy



41,900



46,000



50,100



54,400



64,300



65,200

Total ROI



2,841,200



3,117,100



3,393,700



3,686,100



4,355,500



4,421,000

City values are included in county totals.

Census 1993a; Census 1993x; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j.

Table D.2.1-15.--Population for the Sandia National Laboratories Region of Influence, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

County/City1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Bernalillo County


529,000



577,900



622,600



664,400



748,200



774,100

Albuquerque



422,200



461,200



497,000



530,300



597,200



617,800

Sandoval County



72,900



79,600



85,800



91,500



103,100



106,600

Valencia County



51,200



55,900



60,200



64,300



72,400



74,900

Total ROI



653,100



713,400



768,600



820,200



923,700



955,600

City values are included in county totals.

Census 1993a; Census 1993m; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j.

Table D.2.1-16.--Population for the Nevada Test Site Region of Influence, No Action Alternative, 1995-2030

County/City1995 20002005 20102020 2030
Clark County


941,100



1,084,100



1,181,200



1,250,500



1,392,900



1,441,100

Henderson



93,900



108,100



117,800



124,800



139,000



143,800

Las Vegas



328,900



378,800



412,800



437,000



486,800



503,600

North Las Vegas



61,800



71,200



77,600



82,200



91,500



94,700

Nye County



21,700



25,000



27,300



28,900



32,100



33,300

Total ROI



962,800



1,109,100



1,208,500



1,279,400



1,425,000



1,474,400

City values are included in county totals.

Census 1993a; Census 1993y; DOC 1990c; DOC 1990d; DOC 1994j.