Table 4.5.3.9-3. Impacts of Accidents for Downsize Assembly/Disassembly at Pantex Plant

Downsize Weapons Assembly/Disassembly Storage of Plutonium Strategic Reserves

Parameter EBA BEBA EBA and BEBA Combined EBA BEBA EBA and BEBA Combined

Composite Accident Frequency (Per Year) 0.028 1.1x10-6 0.028 6.0x10-4 5.0x10-8 6.0x10-4
Consequences
Noninvolved Worker
Cancer fatality1 1.7x10-6 6.2x10-3 2.0x10-6 2.3x10-6 6.4x10-4 2.3x10-6
Risk (cancer fatality per year) 4.8x10-8 7.4x10-9 5.6x10-8 1.4x10-9 3.2x10-11 1.4x10-9
Maximally Exposed Individual
Cancer fatality1 1.7x10-6 8.0x10-3 2.0x10-6 9.0x10-7 2.6x10-4 9.2x10-7
Risk (cancer fatality per year) 4.6x10-8 9.7x10-9 5.6x10-8 5.4x10-10 1.3x10-11 5.5x10-10
Population Within 80 Kilometers2
Cancer fatalities3 4.8x10-4 0.94 5.2x10-4 1.0x10-4 0.03 1.1x10-4
Risk (cancer fatalities per year) 1.3x10-5 1.1x10-6 1.5x10-5 6.2x10-8 1.5x10-9 6.4x10-8

1 Probability (increased likelihood of cancer fatality to a hypothetical member of the public located at the site boundary or to a noninvolved worker as a result of exposure to the indicated dose) if the accident occurred.

2 For the offsite population of 285,409, the average probability of cancer fatality/risk of cancer fatality (per year) for the combined EBA and BEBA is 1.8x10-4 /5.3x10-11 and 2.1x10-10 /1.4x10-12 respectively, for the listed alternative(s), downsize weapons A/D and storage of plutonium strategic reserves.

3 Number of cancer fatalities in the population out to 80 km (50 mi) as a result of exposure to the indicated dose if the accident occurs. All values are mean values; BEBA - beyond evaluation basis accidents; EBA - evaluation basis accidents. Results shown are derived from accident analyses (see appendix F).